2024 U.S. Presidential Election Through Big Data: Who Will Win, Harris or Trump?

 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Through Big Data: Who Will Win, Harris or Trump?🎇

In the latest global report, the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome has been projected based on text data indices. According to an analysis by The Economist, dated October 21, 2024, Trump currently holds a 54% probability of winning. However, how does the real-time, dynamic response from the public online play into this prediction? Through vast amounts of text data capturing voter sentiment—distinct from traditional polling—the question remains: what insights can we glean from this alternative approach to understanding voter behavior? Are you curious about the results predicted by this data-driven analysis?

📌2024 U.S. Presidential Election Forecast Based on ETI

✅Harris ETI Trends and Forecast

● Harris’s ETI began at 108.65 in the first week of August and dropped sharply to 84.74 by the fifth week, indicating a weakening in support. It rebounded to 101.15 in the first week of September, stabilized somewhat in the mid-90s, and then rose to 103.56 by the second week of October, showing signs of recovery.

● However, it is predicted to decrease slightly to 100.94 in the third week of October, with further declines expected in the fourth and fifth weeks, reaching 99.95 and 99.61, respectively.

● In summary, while Harris saw a partial recovery in September and October following the August decline, a full rebound was not achieved, and the downward trend in support is expected to continue through the final weeks leading up to the election.

✅Trump ETI Trends and Forecast

● Trump’s ETI rose to 110.55 in the second week of September but then turned downward from the third week, dropping to 85.77 by the first week of October, followed by a slight rebound to 88.53 in the second week of October.

● It is predicted to rise again to 93.99 in the third week of October, with slight declines expected in the fourth and fifth weeks, reaching 93.35 and 92.71, respectively.

● In summary, Trump’s ETI showed a decline after the second week of September, with a brief rebound in the third week of October. However, his ETI is expected to remain below 100, indicating a continued trend of decreasing support leading up to the election.

📌Forecast Conclusion

Harris's final ETI score of 99.61 is ahead of Trump's final ETI score of 92.71 by +6.90 points, but the margin is not substantial, and both candidates are showing a downward trend. 

With the minimal ETI score difference and both candidates in decline, securing support from swing states and undecided voters will be the key factor determining the ultimate success or failure of each candidate. Therefore, a detailed analysis of swing states is necessary to reach a definitive conclusion.

Outro.

The influence of online channels such as Reddit, YouTube, and social media is becoming increasingly significant in the political arena. Supporters who actively engage on these platforms can drive decisive changes in election outcomes. Viral content, whether positive or negative, generated through comments or short-form videos, directly and indirectly impacts voters' perceptions and choices, guiding the flow of public opinion. This global report has utilized comment data from U.S. voters to create an ETI, predicting the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The ETI is particularly meaningful as it captures voters' genuine reactions in real time. Currently, nationwide analysis shows Harris slightly leading Trump, but what will be the outcome in the pivotal swing states that could shape the election? For a more in-depth analysis, please refer to the TEXTOM U.S. Election Report.